Let’s start with a look at the brief history of the College Football Playoff.
Since the four-team postseason format was introduced in 2014, no team has reached the playoff with more than one loss. Of the 16 teams to have made the playoff, 13 did so with one loss and three were undefeated. No two-loss team has reached the field.
Based on the precedent, a second loss for a team is, in effect, playoff-eliminating.
This is a constructive way to look at the early years of Clay Helton’s tenure as the head coach of USC’s football program. With a humbling loss to Texas on Saturday, the Trojans dropped to 1-2 overall, a defeat that ended any faint playoff hopes. It mirrored Helton’s first season in 2016 when the Trojans also suffered their second loss in Week 3.
The early losses, by virtue of where they fall on the schedule, lead to the following scenario. In two of Helton’s three seasons at the helm, USC has been out playoff contention by mid-September. Even last season, the Trojans saw their second loss come in mid-October at Notre Dame, leaving them out of the playoff race for the final seven weeks of the regular season.
Much of the simmering fan frustration about Helton and his program to boil over in recent weeks largely relates to this issue. USC has seen early success under Helton’s watch, including consecutive double-digit win seasons, a Rose Bowl and a Pac-12 championship, but how can one of the college football blue bloods be a non-factor in the playoff hunt for most of the fall? Keep this in mind when gauging the current mood in Los Angeles and at the Coliseum, where the Trojans return Friday night to host Washington State.
Below is this week’s mailbag. You can always direct questions to me on Twitter at @joeyrkaufman or write an email to jkaufman@scng.com.
This should be prefaced by deciphering the level of expectations, because the definition of what would “work out” for one program may not be the same as another program. In the case of USC, I think it’s more than fair to point out that national championships are the predominant goal. Helton has said as much. So let’s establish that guideline and more closely examine the timeframe.
I looked at the 10 most recent FBS head coaches to a win a national championship and when their first title-winning season arrived. Here are the results:
- Nick Saban: Year 3 at Alabama; Year 4 at LSU
- Dabo Swinney Year 8 at Clemson
- Urban Meyer: Year 3 at Ohio State; Year 2 at Florida
- Jimbo Fisher: Year 4 at Florida State
- Gene Chizik: Year 2 at Auburn
- Les Miles: Year 3 at LSU
- Mack Brown: Year 8 at Texas
- Pete Carroll: Year 3 at USC
- Jim Tressel: Year 2 at Ohio State
- Larry Coker: Year 1 at Miami (Fl.)
That’s 10 coaches, including 12 different coaching tenures. In eight cases, the coach won a national championship within his first three seasons. Success might not come overnight, but it’s not a terribly long wait, either. It’s perfectly realistic to expect glimpses of early success. At USC, this has been particularly true as well. In the preseason, as Helton was entering Year 3, I delved a little deeper on how Carroll, as well as John Robinson and John McKay, won national titles in their third seasons. Helton will not, though, join that club after two losses.
Among the recent coaches, the outliers are Swinney and Brown. It took nearly a decade before their national championship triumphs. The trend line is both coaches saw consistent seasons of success before things broke their way, largely due to a transcendent quarterback. Swinney led Clemson to five consecutive double-digit win seasons, including a national championship game appearance, before winning it all with the 2016 season. The Tigers had Deshaun Watson, a dangerous dual-threat quarterback who was instrumental in upending Alabama for the title when he threw a last-second winning touchdown pass. Brown had four consecutive double-digit win seasons before winning his national championship in 2005, defeating USC in the Rose Bowl. Vince Young had much to do with the result if anyone in the Southland recalls.
The best-case scenario for USC fans hoping Helton might work out is these cases, particularly Brown, who led a similar high-profile program and faced questions about his coaching acumen. For years, Brown was labeled “Mr. February,” known primarily for signing top recruiting classes in the winter that didn’t produce enough in the fall. But consistent 10-win seasons meant that Texas, under Brown, was only a few breaks away. He got one with Young’s presence.
The worst-case scenario for Helton’s future might rest with the USC coaches who saw early success in tenures before faltering. For example, Larry Smith led the Trojans to three consecutive Rose Bowls in his first three seasons, then a Sun Bowl finish in Year 4 and a 3-8 record in Year 5. He didn’t make it past Year 6. In his second stint, John Robinson led the Trojans to a Rose Bowl in 1995, but was fired two years later. Lane Kiffin went 10-2 in his second season before his tenure collapsed.
I think we’re entering what will be an illustrative stretch of Helton’s tenure, with much of it tied to how much true freshman passer JT Daniels can measure up to the hype.
It’s likely. For the first time this season, Carr led the Trojans in carries at Texas, looking like a primary running back with the way he was used on the initial drives, including a 23-yard touchdown run. On the flip side, that was with only six carries. The Trojans ran the ball just 25 percent of the time against the Longhorns, their lowest in any game under Helton. But I expect Carr will see a larger share of the workload throughout the season. Much of Carr’s more limited workload has been due to USC’s coaches’ intentions to ease him back from offseason back surgery. Carr has often said he’s 100 percent, but Helton has in particular referenced a sort of build-up. Helton discussed this issue after practice Tuesday when he was asked if Carr’s workload might pick up.
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“I’m going to try to force more touches on him as he gets healthier and confident,” Helton said. “You can see, in the first three games, his confidence is building. The one run for the touchdown (against Texas) was what I was really waiting for to see, to be able to put some shoulder and power and explode through a defender. Seeing that makes you confident putting him out there more.”
The obvious one is Carr, who has averaged only eight carries per game. Even last season, as the backup for Ronald Jones and limited due to a foot injury, Carr averaged six carries per game. Whether you think Carr has been kept on the sideline due to coaching decisions or injury, his increasing role is important to monitor. The Trojans desperately need a running game. They rank 117th nationally in rush offense, which is not a recipe for success with a true freshman starting quarterback. The former five-star recruit, when healthy, is arguably their top playmaker on offense, with the capability for breakaway runs.
For the immediate future, he can, yes. There aren’t many in-season alternatives if Helton wanted to remove Tee Martin as his offensive coordinator. Without Martin, Helton could take over play-calling duties himself. That comes with a cost, though. He’d be less involved in other aspects of the team. He could promote Bryan Ellis, the first-year quarterbacks coach. Ellis, though, would be a rookie play-caller, with his only previous experience coming in an interim role for Western Kentucky in the 2016 Boca Raton Bowl against Memphis. The Hilltoppers totaled 598 yards of total offense in a 51-31 win, but that is it as far as a track record. Running backs Tim Drevno was the offensive coordinator at Michigan last season under Jim Harbaugh and sits as another potential option. The Wolverines’ quarterback situation was in flux under Drevno to be sure, but they ranked No. 105 in the nation in total offense. There just isn’t an overnight fix that seems obvious. And ultimately, it might not matter who calls plays. After spring practice, and training camp, and three weeks of the season, the offensive philosophy is set. Any overhaul that people are demanding would require more than a week of practices.
For an example: Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly fired defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder after a 1-3 start in 2016, but it didn’t save the season. The Fighting Irish still finished 4-8 and didn’t rebound until 2017 after Kelly hired Mike Elko.
The practice script has not looked dramatically different this week, and if anything, it has been condensed due to a shortened week with a Friday night game against Washington State. For practices Monday and Tuesday, the Trojans worked out in “shells” — helmet, shoulder pads and shorts. Usually, they opt for one day in full pads early in the season. There were some changes in practice, most notably the mood from the coaches. Helton was more intense and animated Monday, dropping his share of expletives to stir the players along. Drevno has been more involved with the scout team, attempting to have them battle the first team more. The players have been feisty. Austin Jackson was tangled up with a scout-team linebacker Monday and threw a punch. Linebacker Juliano Falaniko landed one on Andrew Vorhees’ facemask Tuesday and needed to be restrained. Senior running back Aca’Cedric Ware, who described previous practices this month as lazy, thought the effort was improved.
It’s tough to pinpoint one reason for this, but I’ll stress this as undoubtedly one of the biggest issues for the team. USC’s offensive line needs to help Daniels. He’s already been sacked nine times. The running game has had its worst performance since 1999 against Texas. Too often, USC’s running backs aren’t given enough space to get downfield and burst through a hole. Six of 12 carries against Texas went for no gain or a loss of yards. In the past two losses to Stanford and Texas, Carr averaged minus-0.2 yards before contact, and Ware averaged 0.4 yards before contact, according to data from Pro Football Focus. Over the season, Ware has averaged 1.8 yards, Carr has averaged 0.2 yards and Vavae Malepeai has averaged 2 yards. The national average is 2 yards before contact. The Trojans badly need a better push up front.
Tight end Daniel Imatorbhebhe is still on the mend due to a hip flexor that has lingered for more than a year, which is why he has not seen the field. The most recent update from Helton came last week when he said Imatorbhebhe was still a couple weeks away. From my vantage point, he doesn’t appear close to a return. Imatorbhebhe has not been practicing recently, the obvious step before resuming contact.
As far as tight end Tyler Petite, he’s had a slow start, but has been more sure-handed in the past. Petite caught 59 percent of his targets from Sam Darnold last season and 63 percent in 2016, before dropping to 50 percent through the first three games of this season. The senior mentioned last week he thought the receivers and tight ends were still adjusting to Daniels.
A non-insignificant reason has been that there weren’t many available tight ends until recently. Before Josh Falo’s return from a hamstring injury at Texas, the Trojans had only two scholarship tight ends available. Imatorbhebhe is still ways from a return, contributing to this, as does the departure of Cary Angeline, who left the team last season and since transferred to N.C. State, where he is now eligible. USC failed to persuade Angeline to stay. In an ideal scenario for the Trojans, their tight ends would be a factor, as was the case in 2016 when Imatorbhebhe and Petite were simultaneously factors in the passing and among the team’s top-six leading receivers.
You’re right in assessing this as a significant issue.
The Trojans have often been in favorable positions on third down. According to SB Nation’s Bill Connelly, their defense has forced the nation’s third-longest average distance on third down — an average of 9.7 yards to go. Teams get almost nowhere on first or second down, forcing the third-and-long situations. (H/t to Michael Castillo of the Reign of Troy blog for pointing this out). But despite facing what is basically a third-and-10 most of the time, the Trojans currently rank 89th nationally in third-down conversion rate, allowing teams to pick up a first down more than 40 percent of the time. Defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast was asked about the issue after practice Tuesday.
“It’s been some different things, uncharacteristic things of some veteran guys that have made some mistakes and we’ve had some young guys make mistakes,” Pendergast said. “We just have to do a better job of recognizing where we are on the field and what the situation is and how important it is to get off the field on third down.”
USC players in the past have mentioned needing to be assignment perfect in Pendergast’s defense to avoid surrendering big plays. There isn’t room for much error. On Texas’ first scoring drive against USC, it converted a third-and-10. And on its first touchdown drive, it converted a third-and-8. The Longhorns ultimately converted 10 of 19 third downs, almost 50 percent. Pendergast said the Trojans need to be around 30 percent.
This comes in honor of me meeting Bevo on Saturday. He is a big boy. But I love all live college mascots equally and have no favorites. Covering games, I’ve so far met, in alphabetical order, Bevo (Texas), Dubs (Washington), Ralphie (Colorado), Traveler (USC) and Uga (Georgia). They are all special.
